Monday, February 15, 2010

Politics, adverse selection, and moral hazard

It’s hard to choose from all those presidentiables. You’re never sure what they have in mind. You ask yourself, “Why is she running? Why is he running? Why are they running?” It’s because he wants to help alleviate poverty (yes, he can, like I can kiss my own ass). It’s because his mother died. And he does not steal. It’s because he’s a pilot and the Philippines is ready for take-off. It’s because he is for the poor (yeah, and I’m for aliens!). It’s because of all this and all that.

All for good stuff, huh? But how are we really sure that they intend to do all those? Maybe they do. But they’re all talk. How will they do those? I mean, alleviate poverty, for instance. How? Give them jobs? Give them sari-sari stores? Suppose you gave each and every single poor person a sari-sari store so they could have their own livelihood. Then who friggin’ buys from them? Who buys from Tindahan ni Manang? Definitely not Aling Nena, because she has her own Tindahan ni Aling Nena. No, duh!

Anyway, that’s not what I’m here to discuss.

Aren’t you a little bit suspicious? You’re being given this information, on what he plans to do when he wins. But is it really just that? Or is he keeping something else from you? Surely, there’s asymmetric information!

To simplify, let me give you an example. Suppose I have $300. Berto needs $300, because he’s going to a casino. He badgers me to lend him my money. But he does not tell me he’s going to gamble. Instead, he tells me he will use the money to help his ill dog. Which, we shall say, is true. But what Berto really intends to do first is gamble. Then take his ill dog to the vet using his winnings. And then pay me back. And then still have money! Now let me introduce you to Chiz E. Chiz E needs a photocopying machine worth $300 so he could start his own photocopying service. But he is so conservative in borrowing, he only borrows when he is sure he’ll generate income! So who borrows? BERTO! And who gets the money? BERTO! Because I am such a kind-hearted soul, I lend him $300. Adverse selection!

Now, suppose Dodong came along and borrowed the $3oo first so he could start his own friggin’ business. Once he receives the $300, he passes by a casino, and thinks, hey, I could actually turn this measly $300 into a bazillion, then I’d have more! Moral hazard!

So think about it. Are these presidentiables really running for the greater good? Or is there more to them than meet(s?) the posters and songs? Are they pursuing the presidential seat because they are so sure that their personal gains are high as well? Are they thinking really of the country?

So maybe they are. But what happens when they win? Will they get blinded by money?

Will this all lead to the principal-agent problem, will our next president pursue his own interests at the risk of the Filipino people?

God help our presidential candidates.

[Via http://sabuhaynimay.wordpress.com]

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