MONEY: Stats with a weak dollar?

http://www.bargaineering.com/articles/your-take-are-we-out-of-the-recession.html/

Your Take: Are We Out Of The Recession?

by Jim Wang

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Yesterday, the Department of Commerce reported that the annualized GDP (gross domestic product) grew to 3.5% in third quarter. This is significant because, by definition, a recession is two straight quarters of shrinking GDP. A 3.5% increase in GDP would mean, at least technically, the recession was over. Four straight quarters of negative GDP growth, the worst of which was the first quarter of 2009 (-6.4%), has finally come to an end.

Hooray! Right?

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I’d point out that the weak dollar should influence our judgments. If the stock market goes up 50% but the dollar goes down 50% versus gold, the Euro, or some other “standard”, then did the market go up at all? Like fish in a tank, we can’t sense anything but water. Bad metaphor, can’t think of a good one. It’s like a football team gaining ground but the “year” gets redefined as the game proceeds. IT feels like we are losing ground on a “financial treadmill”. AND, give the gooferment’s tendency to make stuff up (i.e., jobs “saved” or “created”), especially if it’s a nebulously defined concept, I’m cynical about being “out of the recession”. The Titanic had its ice deliver but didn’t sink right away. Maybe we’re seeing the same thing. All that printing press money has to come home to roost.

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